RUSSIA'S QUIET OCCUPATION OF BELARUS

Russia is going to significantly increase its military presence in Belarus in 2017. Such a conclusion can be drawn considering plans of the Russian Armed Forces to sharply increase its rail transportations to the Republic of Belarus. Thus, compared to the year 2015, the volumes of transportation will increase 33 times, as compared with the current year up to 83 times. Total in 2017 4162 wagons with Russian military equipment must arrive to the neighboring republic.

According to experts, such large-scale moving of military forces may indicate Russia's plans to deploy a significant part of the newly created 1st Guards Tank Army of the West Military District on the the territory of Belarus. Further it can be used both for invasion to the north of Ukraine and used as a task force to connect with Russia's military groups in the Kaliningrad region with further creation of the so-called "Baltic noose." 

In addition, it goes without saying that the presence of such numerous Russian military contingent in Belarus means establishment of full political and military control by Moscow over Minsk, who's government has been trying to maintain a "multi-vector" policy in the conditions of Ukrainian-Russian conflict in last years.

Dmytro Tymchuk, a military expert and a coordinator of the InfoResist counter propaganda group believes that such military steps by Russia could mark the beginning of new Cold War as well as indicate that the Kremlin has not abandoned its plans of large-scale invasion into Ukraine: 

Considering the recent events it seems that we can conclude the beginning of a new Cold War. NATO has began to redeploy its units to the eastern borders of the Alliance. Earlier, the same process had been launched by Russia with concentration its forces in the regions bordering with Ukraine. However, we can expect that Russia will try involve all possible allies in the region to form a set of military units for further formation of strike groups.

The second point is Russian invasion to Ukraine. We have already witnessed twice how Russia embarked the establishment of new military bases along the border with Ukraine, it was in the end of 2015 and in the beginning of 2016. Consequently, the Kremlin will use the territory of Belarus to establish a base near the northern borders of Ukraine (on the same principle as they have created a military base near the southern border with Georgia using the territory of Armenia - ed. note). In any case, the possible transfer of Russian troops to Belarus is another lever of pressure on Ukraine. In fact, all of Russia's foreign policy is intended to put such pressure on our country.

Considering the landscape features of our northern and north-eastern region I can hardly imagine it as a theater of war. The northern part of Ukraine is Polissia. Hostilities in this region had limited scale during the WW2. Wooded and marshland area is an inappropriate for conduction of military operations by large units. However, there is another serious threat. It consists in great possibility that Moscow would continue to increase its air striking force in Belarus. And this is a threat, which can result in serious problems in the case of full-scale invasion.

In addition the Ukrainian MP Irina Friz recently noted that Russia prepares a large-scale anti-Ukrainian provocation in Belarus. 

"The Zvezda TV channel, which belongs to the Russian ministry of defense, recently showed the plot about allegedly Ukraine prepares a military provocation against the Republic of Belarus. In particular, it noted that Ukraine's secret services is planning to direct a unit of "punishers" with Belorussian roots to Minsk in order to overthrow the current government in this country." - wrote mrs Friz.

The politician stressed that this may explain the Kremlin's plans to increase the volume of military rail traffic to Belarus in 2017 by 5 times.

The purpose of such an action may be the elimination of the Lukashenko's government, introduction of Russian troops and establishment of direct control over the country; another key point is that this step will allow the Kremlin to take its forces directly to the eastern border of Poland in order to increase political pressure on Europe. Provocation can be carried out with the participation of citizens, who had been involved in the fightings in the Donbass on the terrorists side as well as regular units of the Russia's Armed Forces and agents, had been introduced to the law enforcement of Belarus.

In addition can be noted significant increase of plots on the Russian government TV channels aimed at pumping of anti-Belorussian hysteria in Russia just as it was in the case with Ukraine few years ago.