The economic component of the hybrid war
There is two main reasons of recession in the Ukrainian economy during 2014-2015 years:
- the systemic crisis resulting from prolonged absence of economic policy based on programs of social development and technological modernization of the economy;
- consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which began February 28, 2014 and where the Kremlin is using hybrid methods of war, aimed at destroying the economic, socio-political and state mechanisms of Ukraine.
And if the systemic crisis of Ukrainian economy, whose main features is technological degradation, monopolisation of resources and critical reduction of domestic market is quite traceable and predictable phenomenon, and methods of solving this problem well known in the world, then the counteraction to some special operations, that Russia carries out within the hybrid war against Ukraine requires from Ukrainian government a broader understanding of current situation and adequate counteraction to enemy's attacks on this field and development specific system, directed to protect the national economy from aggression within the hybrid war.
Now we see the one of negative consequences for the national economy in the loss of 15% of domestic consumer market because of Russian occupation of Crimea and some parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Moreover, the country's energetic balance was violated due to the lost control over a large part of coal mines. In addition, we should not forget about a big number of Ukrainian export-oriented enterprises, which were placed in occupied part of Donbass, the loss of control over this areas led to a significant reduction in foreign exchange earnings. Another negative consequence for national economy during the war time is military spending and mobilisation of economically active part of Ukrainian population for military service. So, as you can see, that holding of slow and prolonged military confrontation with the purpose of wearing down the Ukrainian forces and resources is one of the most important Kremlin's task in this hybrid war.
However, in reality, the measures listed above is not an exhaustive list of the economic component of the hybrid war. With a wide network of Russian agents of influence in Ukraine, the Kremlin organizes and conducts special economic, informational and psychological operations to undermine stability in Ukrainian society. We can put some parallels between operations of mobilization disruption; intimidating the population by terrorist acts in cities, which are far from the front lines; conspiracy of financial and banking institutions for economically unjustified collapse of the national currency; large-scale information campaign aimed to atomization of Ukrainian society. All this is aimed to attempt to renewing the period of "Ruin" (great depression) in Ukraine, the period of national history, when Ukrainians have lost the opportunity to build a successful national project due to arrogance of its leaders and inability of the population to unite.
Given that the media resources, energy companies, banks and large companies is under control of agents of Russian influence in Ukraine, they also have their representatives in the parliament, in the judiciary, in the Federation of Employers of Ukraine and the Federation of Trade Unions of Ukraine. it is easy to predict that the next six months, against the background of a critical fall in living standards, the Russian special services will try to implement the special information-psychological operation to provoke massive "popular protests" in order to return the agents of Russian influence into the power. (It is not refers to the protests of Ukrainian nationalists, which is quite justified and appropriate - editor)
In such circumstances, the Ukrainian government and nationalist forces should develop a systematic approach to counter the hybrid war and counter-revolution. It is possible that Ukraine should be the first in the world, which will create a new branch of law, that would regulate government actions to counter the hybrid war. As an option - the government could officially declaring a state of hybrid war instead of the introduction of martial law, declaring himself the victim of aggression and legalize their actions to prevent enemy`s special operations on its territory, including through the nationalisation or the introduction of an interim administration in companies companies and organizations controlled by agents of enemy`s influence.
The field of law, that governs the actions of the state in terms of hybrid war should be founded as soon as possible, this is the best way to defend Ukraine from enemy`s special operations in the economic and information-psychological field. Therefore, the joint efforts of the Ukrainian government and the nationalists to counter the hybrid war should be the most priority today.
Now we see the one of negative consequences for the national economy in the loss of 15% of domestic consumer market because of Russian occupation of Crimea and some parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Moreover, the country's energetic balance was violated due to the lost control over a large part of coal mines. In addition, we should not forget about a big number of Ukrainian export-oriented enterprises, which were placed in occupied part of Donbass, the loss of control over this areas led to a significant reduction in foreign exchange earnings. Another negative consequence for national economy during the war time is military spending and mobilisation of economically active part of Ukrainian population for military service. So, as you can see, that holding of slow and prolonged military confrontation with the purpose of wearing down the Ukrainian forces and resources is one of the most important Kremlin's task in this hybrid war.
However, in reality, the measures listed above is not an exhaustive list of the economic component of the hybrid war. With a wide network of Russian agents of influence in Ukraine, the Kremlin organizes and conducts special economic, informational and psychological operations to undermine stability in Ukrainian society. We can put some parallels between operations of mobilization disruption; intimidating the population by terrorist acts in cities, which are far from the front lines; conspiracy of financial and banking institutions for economically unjustified collapse of the national currency; large-scale information campaign aimed to atomization of Ukrainian society. All this is aimed to attempt to renewing the period of "Ruin" (great depression) in Ukraine, the period of national history, when Ukrainians have lost the opportunity to build a successful national project due to arrogance of its leaders and inability of the population to unite.
Given that the media resources, energy companies, banks and large companies is under control of agents of Russian influence in Ukraine, they also have their representatives in the parliament, in the judiciary, in the Federation of Employers of Ukraine and the Federation of Trade Unions of Ukraine. it is easy to predict that the next six months, against the background of a critical fall in living standards, the Russian special services will try to implement the special information-psychological operation to provoke massive "popular protests" in order to return the agents of Russian influence into the power. (It is not refers to the protests of Ukrainian nationalists, which is quite justified and appropriate - editor)
In such circumstances, the Ukrainian government and nationalist forces should develop a systematic approach to counter the hybrid war and counter-revolution. It is possible that Ukraine should be the first in the world, which will create a new branch of law, that would regulate government actions to counter the hybrid war. As an option - the government could officially declaring a state of hybrid war instead of the introduction of martial law, declaring himself the victim of aggression and legalize their actions to prevent enemy`s special operations on its territory, including through the nationalisation or the introduction of an interim administration in companies companies and organizations controlled by agents of enemy`s influence.
The field of law, that governs the actions of the state in terms of hybrid war should be founded as soon as possible, this is the best way to defend Ukraine from enemy`s special operations in the economic and information-psychological field. Therefore, the joint efforts of the Ukrainian government and the nationalists to counter the hybrid war should be the most priority today.
by the materials of Eugene Soykin
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