THE EU PROSPECTS - THE SECOND CHANCE OR AGONY?

The known US financier George Soros recently noted that the EU faith will be decided at the referendum in Britain, which is held today. Accordingly, if British people would decide today the UK to withdraw from the EU - the union's collapse will look quite realistic. 

According to him, pro-EU sentiments had grew among the EU residents before voting day. According to the poll conducted by YouGov, the number of EU-sceptics exceeded the number of EU-optimists: 45% to 41%. 11% of respondents could not define their position on the matter. However, a survey commissioned by The Daily Telegraph has showed the opposite trend. 

The EP President Martin Schulz makes same forecasts. He believes, that the UK's withdrawal from the European Union would cause a real catastrophe since Britain has he second largest regional economy and it is a member of the Big Seven. The most interesting is that the head of the European Parliament claims, that nationalism is a biggest problem and threat for the EU. "A problem is not in the European Union itself, but in nationalism of some European states," said Schulz. However, all we understand that it, first of all, concerns the problem of refugees.

As regards to our country, the UK's withdrawal from the EU would unlikely affect Ukraine. However, the EU collapse will. On the one hand it would mean the collapse of the European leftists political project, but on the other - it would help Moscow to implement its own cosmopolitan geopolitical project (USSR 2.0). The first aspect would cause a number of positive things; first of all in this case the Ukrainian liberals would lose its powerful ally and a funding source, which, in its turn, would cause the Ukrainian society to consolidate around the healthy right and pro-national forces. This would also reactualize the issue of searching of adequate geopolitical allies - the countries of Baltic-Black Sea area. Also worth note, that the EU collapse will lead to increasing the risk that the "Donbass/Crimea scenario" to be repeated in Baltic states and Poland. At the same time that would mean very sharp escalation of conflict in the Donbass or even full-scale invasion, so must be prepared.

Another European politician - Czech Foreign Minister Lubomir Zaoralek recently stated: "Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to “divide and conquer” the EU by supporting populist politicians across the bloc." In this regard worth note once again that the Kremlin's propagandist media have formed the artificial image of "Conservative Russia." In fact the European rights are support this image, nothing more. Undoubtedly, modern Russia has some conservative features, but modern Russian conservatism appeals not to aristocratism, but to its Soviet past, which is manifested in its cultural heritage, supported by the RF leadership through promotion the cult of "a common man/a proletarian," socialist Soviet rhetoric, the dominance of the USSR symbolic dimension.

The Russian Federation has tried to occupy a niche of "Europe's right flagman" in last years, but its attempts have not always end successfully despite large investments in media and lobby groups. At the same time Ukraine has good chances to do that, even despite limited information and financial resources. And the creation of the Baltic-Black Sea Union, as an alliance of conservative states of East Europe is the key to that. Also worth noting, that both Poland and the Baltic states have already faced the press from the EU leadership because of their conservative position in a number of issues.

In general, we have to realize, that the EU collapse isn't the Kremlin's work, but most likely a historical pattern. Europe has existed as a civilisation, consisted from a number of unique ethnic groups for centuries. Ethnic factor was important and significant, but it hadn't played a key role in the European policy till XIX century. Later, in the period of XIX - XX centuries national factor had became the main vector policy of European states. Later, in the period of XIX - XX centuries national factor had became the main vector policy of European states. But today's European elites ignore this important factor again. In short, the cureent crisis wasn't caused by the Kremlin, but because of Europeans themselves, especially because of spreading the liberal and multicultural tendencies in the society.

In general, the problem of refugees is one of the key issues. And relation to the  migrant crisis is a political factor by which today the European "right" and "left" are divided. As already mentioned, European Socialists, like, Martin Schulz sees nationalism a biggest problem. Similar thoughts were expressed by the Foreign Minister of Luxembourg Jean Asselborn. By the way, Russia's president Vladimir Putin repeatedly expressed the same thoughts. Returning to the theme of conservative sentiments among the leaders of Baltic-Black Sea region we can remind the Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, who noted, that crisis could become a cornerstone of Europe.

At least we are, as people of a conservative country, have to hope for that. Collapse of the EU polithical block will open a wide range of possibilities for creation of new supranational alliances based on such healy values, as nationalism, concervativism and respect of traditional values. The project of the Intermarium (the Baltic-Black Sea Union), as a prototype of the "Europe of nations" concept is the most appealing for us.

Source: AzovPress