"THAT'S A CLASSICAL POLITICAL POKER," - A UKRAINIAN ANALYST ON PUTIN'S 'PEACEKEEPING' INITIATIVES

Putin's recent initiative to deploy the UN peacekeepers along the demarcation line in the Donbass is a classical political poker.

He is making a move aimed to rise contradictions between Kyiv, Berlin, Paris and Washington, each of whom sees own ways and strategies for settlement the conflict in Donbass. Moreover, this can affect the political sytuation in eache of the capitals, taking into account the latest statements of German dreamers from the opposition about the need to "... make a step towards Russia," the trudge between Trump and the US parliament and the fall of Macron's rating.

In addition, it definitely is a countermeasure against the initiative of Ukrainian president on the peacekeeping mission introduction, with which he wants to speak at the UN.

The key point is that the Ukrainian idea regarding the UN peacekeepers involvement is fundamentally different from that of Moscow. It implies the mission's forces deployment, first of all, at the uncontrolled parts of the Russian-Ukrainian border, not only on the demarcation line.

The difference lies in the consequences. While the Ukraine's side initiative is a solution to the conflict, then the Russian one is aimed to freeze of the conflict. the third point is that the Russian president is trying to make a courtesy towards the OSCE, whose representatives have often been complaining about the Russian troops in the Donbass in recent time. 

But, let's imagine that the UN Security Council has voted for the Russian initiative.

Let's think why does Putin needs the peacekeepers at the real battlefield? The answer is quite simple - combat capability of the terrorists' "army corps" falls at such a pace that the main task of peacekeepers in this case is to safe the "LNR and DNR" from defeat. 

There is another, fifth nuance. With a high degree of probability, the parliament will pass a law on the De-occupation of the Donbass, in which Russia is clearly recognized as an aggressor.

After that, the military-political situation around the conflict is changing radically. In particular, Moscow ceases to be an intermediary, instead it officially becomes  a violator of international law. This brings the situation to a new level. This also open new possibilities for sanctions and other measures. Not without reason, in his statement the Russian president put the issues of the UN peacekeepers and the transfer of lethal weapons to Ukraine in one row. 

The most unpleasant prospect for Ukraine is the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from the Donbas, with simultaneous introduction of peacekeepers to the separation line - in order to prevent the Armed Forces of Ukraine to clear up the terrotory from the "separatists" - and the subsequent "freezing" of the conflict.

However, this perspective - which Moscow is counting on - is contradicts with the position that the "separatists' army" is in fact represented by the 1-st and 2-nd Army Corps of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, that has been subordinated to the 12-we Territorial Command (Rostov-on-Don), and then - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

Accordingly, the ORDLO (the abbreviation for the Separate Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Regions - a definition for the occupied areas of Donbass, used in Ukrainian media and law area - ed.) is a Russia's occupied region of Ukraine, and Russia is an invader.

In any case, the most important messure against the Kremlin's initiatives is the adoption by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine of a law on the De-occupation of the Donbass, in which the Russian Federation will be clearly defined as an aggressor.

Now look at the hands and the heads. Quite possible that someone will exclaim (especially in Germany) that this is the long-awaited discharge, that Putin does right and now it's the West's turn to take a step towards...

original by Olexiy ARESTOVICH